Two-Start Dive Bar: June 27 – July 3


I think I need to clear something up about how the Dive Bar here works. Most weeks, whoever I’ve put in The Top Shelf, I’ve put there because they’re going to do better for you over the course of the week than any one-start pitcher in the same span. Pitchers don’t always do what I tell them, of course. Even the supposedly-reliable ones. At times, someone like Robbie Ray has a crap week, while someone like Paul Blackburn is inexplicably lights-out. Choices have to be made, here, and that’s part of how I make that call. Hope it helps.

This week, the best one-start pitcher in my estimation is Carlos Rodon. He’d slot in right about where Jameson Taillon is on this list. Obviously, that’d still be a good play, in the called-out section of The Well. My focus, of course, is on double-dippers, hence the nearly-dozen who are listed above that spot. All right, let’s dive into the pitchers. Shall we?

 

The bold pitchers below are the most extreme version of each section. The best of the Top Shelf, the safest of the Well, the worst of the Bar Mat.

The Top Shelf

Pitcher First Start Second Start
Robbie Ray, SEA BAL(TU) OAK(SU)
Kevin Gausman, TOR BOS(MO) TB(SA)
George Kirby, SEA BAL(MO) OAK(SA)
Alek Manoah, TOR BOS(WE) TB(SU)
Zack Wheeler, PHI ATL(TU) STL(SU)
Lucas Giolito, CHW @LAA(MO) @SF(SU)
Luis Garcia, HOU @NYM(TU) LAA(SU)
Tarik Skubal, DET @SF(TU) KC(SU)
Frankie Montas, OAK @NYY(TU) @SEA(SU)
Jordan Montgomery, NYY OAK(MO) @CLE(SA)

Notes

  • Have you ever seen better matchups in a two-start week for any pitchers than Robbie Ray and George Kirby have this week? My god, it isn’t even fair. Home-and-homes against the 2nd- and 9th-worst scoring offenses in baseball (also the lowest and 3rd-lowest team batting averages in the AL)? Rack ’em up.
  • Flip side of that, yeah, Frankie Montas is here. He’s very good, and though you can’t count on him for wins given the offense behind him, that start at Seattle opposite Robbie Ray is going to be a helluva pitcher’s duel. 100% worth it despite the early-week stop in the Bronx.

 

The Well

Pitcher First Start Second Start
Charlie Morton, ATL @PHI(TU) @CIN(SU)
Jameson Taillon, NYY OAK(TU) @CLE(SU)
Shane Baz, TB MIL(WE) @TOR(SU)
Sonny Gray, MIN @CLE(MO) BAL(SA)
Pablo Lopez, MIA @STL(MO) @WSH(SU)
Ross Stripling, TOR BOS(TU) TB(SA)
Triston McKenzie, CLE MIN(MO) NYY(SA)
Luis Castillo, CIN @CHC(TU) ATL(SU)
Eric Lauer, MIL @TB(TU) @PIT(SU)
Clayton Kershaw, LAD @COL(TU) SD(SU)
Martin Perez, TEX @KC(MO) @NYM(SU)
Kris Bubic, KC TEX(MO) @DET(SU)
Adam Wainwright, STL MIA(MO) @PHI(SU)

Notes

  • Jameson Taillon will pitch opposite Montas, and while Taillon is likely to get better run support than Montas is, it’s still likely to be a low-scoring affair.
  • As I said in the intro, Carlos Rodon (one start this week) would slot in alongside Taillon, a toss-up between them. All other one-start pitchers would line up behind Shane Baz this week, so take that into account when planning your lineup for the week.

 

The Bar Mat

Pitcher First Start Second Start
Zach Plesac, CLE MIN(TU) NYY(SU)
Jose Quintana, PIT @WSH(TU) MIL(SU)
Devin Smeltzer, MIN @CLE(TU) BAL(SU)
Tyler Wells, BAL @SEA(MO) @MIN(SU)
Paul Blackburn, OAK @NYY(MO) @SEA(SA)
Keegan Thompson, CHC CIN(TU) BOS(SU)
Erick Fedde, WSH PIT(MO) MIA(SU)
Tyler Anderson, LAD @COL(MO) SD(SA)
Tyler Beede, PIT @WSH(MO) MIL(SA)
Tyler Danish, BOS @TOR(MO) @CHC(SU)
Chad Kuhl, COL LAD(MO) ARI(SU)

Notes

  • As per usual, don’t start these guys if you can help it, and anyone bold here is much more likely to hurt you than help.
  • I would not want to be Chad Kuhl this week…

 



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