Jo Adell, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper


He was drafted in 2017. Snooze, what’s taking so long for Jo Adell? Wait a second, he’s still only going to be 22 years old when the 2022 season starts? Assuming it starts. It’ll start. Right? Riiiiiiiiight? Eight I’s!? Whoa, that’s a lot of I’s and Jo Adell is still pretty young. I have gotchies older. Of course, those gotchies are in a framed-glass case behind my desk for my Zoom calls. It’s a move to impress people. It’s failed to do so just yet. Okay, recapping non-underwear news! Jo Adell went 27/10 across two levels this past year, Triple-A and the majors. He hit .289/.342/.592 in Triple-A, then came up and hit .246/.295/.408 in the majors. This was in 441 total ABs (130 in the majors). His final 17 games in the majors: 3/1 and .302/.343/.524 when he hit in 14 of the final 17 games. Because MLB hates baseball fans to see games in their geographic region, I had to search to some Jo Adell home run clips, wanna see them? Of course, you do!

He hit that so easily I’m picking the bottom of my jaw off the floor. Let’s see another the other way:

I don’t want to say anything stupid, but he kinda reminds me of Fun Tatis Jr., due to the ease the ball jumps out. Everyone in the organization was impressed with the gains Jo Adell made. Might say Maddon was singing Adell’s praises, saying he set fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiire to the raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain. That’s a direct quote, but they were karaoking at the time. But was this a true fix or a small sample masquerading as a big sample with a monthly subscription to Get Roman? So, what can we expect from Jo Adell for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Jo Adell sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Jesus, Christmas gets all the miracles. Anyway II, the Jo Adell sleeper:

Jo Adell’s strikeout rate went from 29.2% to 22.9% in the minors to the majors. Yes, that’s why we’re here. He went from a .160 hitter to a .260 hitter, essentially overnight. The major league strikeout rate might be a small sample talking, like in Puppetry of the Penis, but the plate discipline numbers look improved. His Contact% went from 60.8% to 72.3%. His contact within the zone went from 66.5% to 79.5%. His contact with pitches outside the zone went from 52.3% to 63.2%. Yes, please and thank you. He swung more in general (up ~3%) and it seemed more aggressiveness didn’t conflict with a better selection. I like that. *licks fingers in a weird way* Sorry, too provocative?

When a player matures into an everyday outfielder from a 1st round draft pick, and they’re only 22 years old? Forgetting about him is not smart fantasy baseballing. So, he had a 35% fly ball rate so far in the majors, but regularly had a higher one in the minors. His Launch Angle of 12-ish prolly gets him around a 38% fly ball rate, but he could be as high as 46-50%. 50% might be a bit too high (literally), but I don’t think that will be an issue. I’m counting on a 38% fly ball rate, and anything higher is a whipped topping. This is the difference between 28 homers and 38 homers. One is Rafael Devers last year, and one is Devers two years ago. Not saying he will be Devers, Adell won’t hit for that good an average. Just his power might not be far off.

Have I mentioned Adell stole 10 bags last year? I did, back in paragraph one. Honestly, I think that’s the floor, but he hasn’t shown a willingness to steal bags in the majors as much as he did in the minors, so it’s all we have to go on. To recap, 28-38 homers? All right. Seven to 10 steals? All right, all right. .245 thru .265? Okay, all right. So, 28/10/.255 from Adell as a possible expectation and he’s being drafted around 250 overall? It seems like he’s being forgotten in drafts because he’s got a lot of unknown, but is he unknown? Nothing I’ve said in this post seems very unknown and I’ve demonstrated why he’s projectable for 28/10/.255. Is it unknown because he flamed out in 2020? Yeah, so did lots of other people. For 2022, I’ll give Jo Adell projections of 67/28/76/.253/10 in 537 ABs with a chance for more.





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