Chad Young’s Ottoneu OF Rankings

Tier Rank Player Eligibility Projected P/G Notes $61-$75 1 Juan Soto OF 8.10 Best of the best – no player I would rather have on my Ottoneu roster. $50-$60 2 Mike Trout OF 7.30 Yes, 2021 was short for Trout. It was also his best season ever by wOBA. $50-$60 3 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 7.47 I am probably assuming too many games for him, but a delayed start to the season increases his value relative to Harper and others below him. $50-$60 4 Bryce Harper OF 6.98 He’s been less reliable than the others in this tier, but is capable of putting up an OF1 season at any time. $35-$49 5 Aaron Judge OF 6.73 His rookie season set unrealistic expecations, but he has been consistently excellent – if not AS excellent – since. $35-$49 6 Yordan Alvarez OF 6.61 Same comment as Judge, with less of a track record since; think he’s a better hitter than Judge, but less confident in a .390+ wOBA. $35-$49 7 Kyle Tucker OF 6.44 He had a breakout 2021, and that was despite a slow start – if you look at what he did after April, you can start to make a case for him moving up a tier. $28-$34 8 Jesse Winker OF 6.28 Only think separating him from the next tier up in playing time – he’ll give you just as good numbers in fewer games. $28-$34 9 Giancarlo Stanton OF 6.51 The middle of a tier where playing time really impacts value, but clearly the most productive of the three when he plays. $28-$34 10 George Springer OF 5.99 I have a hard time dropping him lower than this, but he needs to give you 140 games and I think there is some real risk in that. $21-$27 11 Luis Robert OF 6.08 He needs a full season producing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the Judge-Alvarez-Tucker tier next year. $21-$27 12 Kyle Schwarber 1B/OF 6.04 Broke out in the way we have all been expecting for years, but this projection doesn’t require repeating his 2021 – and you shouldn’t count on him repeating his 2021. $21-$27 13 Josh Bell 1B/OF 6.00 Real gains in contact quality and plate discipline, with a chance for a further power breakout with more fly balls. $21-$27 14 Bryan Reynolds OF 5.90 Some real volatility in the profile, as his success has followed his BABIP, and he hasn’t really established consistently plate discipline baselines. $21-$27 15 Byron Buxton OF 5.94 Big jumps in his statcast data backup the 2021 breakout; this all comes down to risk tolerance, cause the upside is real high. $21-$27 16 Joey Gallo OF 5.86 I still believe his approach and Yankee Stadium are a match made in heaven, and there is upside far beyond this rank. $21-$27 17 Tyler O’Neill OF 5.77 If the projections can get over his strike out issues, I guess I can too? Maybe? $21-$27 18 Franmil Reyes OF 5.89 He’s never cracked 550 PA and (in related news) has never hit 40 HR. This year he does both. $21-$27 19 Eloy Jiménez OF 5.73 He’s never cracked 550 PA and (in related news) has never hit 40 HR. This year he does both. $21-$27 20 Nick Castellanos OF 5.64 Since the move to Cincinnati, he has a .418 wOBA at home and a .329 on the road – I have some real concerns about where he lands. $16-$20 21 Jared Walsh 1B/OF 5.80 Had a 151 wRC+ through May, then just 89 through late August and I was already writing a note about how pitchers adjusted and he didn’t…and then he posted a 164 wRC+ the rest fo the way. $16-$20 22 J.D. Martinez OF 5.87 .364 wOBA on the year, but just .346 after April 11, .338 after June 1. I don’t think he is done, but I don’t think his full-season line is reflective of who he is. $16-$20 23 Teoscar Hernández OF 5.60 This is a bit of a bet that his BABIP’s the last two years are a reflection of how he hits rather than pure luck – his range of outcomes is pretty wide. $16-$20 24 Christian Yelich OF 5.85 His projected numbers look like a bounceback above and beyond his 2020, but I am not comfortable betting on that. $16-$20 25 Cedric Mullins OF 5.25 I think he is an interesting trade candidate right now because he likely costs something close to this tier, but someone probably values him much higher. $16-$20 26 Cody Bellinger OF 5.62 I like Bellinger to rebound more than I like Yelich to rebound, but the projection systems universally disagree, but I’m more likely to roster a $15-$17 Bellinger than an $18-$20 Yelich. $16-$20 27 Brandon Nimmo OF 5.57 I really should just become a Mets fan because I am pretty high on basically all of their bats. Nimmo’s OBP makes him a nice safe bet to not sink you even if he isn’t great. $16-$20 28 Jorge Soler OF 5.56 Don’t overreact to the awful start or the torrid finish. $16-$20 29 Randy Arozarena OF 5.44 If you play in a post-season only league, he might be the #1 OF. But otherwise, don’t let the post-season hype distract from a guy who is a very good, but not great, Ottoneu OF. $16-$20 30 Starling Marte OF 5.16 This ranking feels high to me, but I can’t see moving him below the guys under him, so here we are. $10-$15 31 Marcell Ozuna OF 5.57 Maybe not being stuck pretending to play OF will help him be even better. $10-$15 32 Austin Meadows OF 5.24 In like three years, we’re going to say, “I can’t believe anyone ever thought he [was/was not] a star!” and I am betting on the upside. $10-$15 33 Mitch Haniger OF 5.17 His comeback looked a lot like his 2018 breakout with some signs of decline – I expect he’ll repeat that, but worry the decline could continue. $10-$15 34 Michael Conforto OF 5.64 The power dried up and I am not sure a new park will be enough to reverse the current. $10-$15 35 Trent Grisham OF 5.21 Had a .384 wOBA before getting hurt and I get the sense he just never got himself back on track. Hard not to dream on what he could do. $10-$15 36 Ian Happ OF 5.49 Seemed to round back into form in the second half. $10-$15 37 Alex Verdugo OF 5.40 That high OBP is helpful but he needs more power to really stand out in this format. $10-$15 38 Ryan Mountcastle 1B/OF 5.22 There may be no player more highly impacted by the new fence in Camden Yards than Mountcastle. $10-$15 39 Michael Brantley OF 5.38 Just keeps hitting, but the power is basically gone and, as with Verdugo, that lack of power really holds him back here. $6-$9 40 Max Kepler OF 5.24 Barrel rate went up without bringing his offense with it. Worth a gamble, but very good chance 2019 never comes back, in which case this will feel like an overpay. $6-$9 41 Hunter Renfroe OF 5.43 Was a top 30 OF last year by P/G (400+ PA), so this ranking is a bit low if you think he can repeat his 2021. $6-$9 42 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 1B/OF 5.36 Another bat whose overall line (.333 wOBA) hides how strong he was after May 1 (.366 wOBA). $6-$9 43 AJ Pollock OF 5.39 Between a part-time role and the fact that he didn’t become the capital-S Star we hoped, I think it has been lost just how good he has been the last two seasons. $6-$9 44 Ramón Laureano OF 5.08 He’ll miss time and may be an afterthought at auction, so if you can get him late and cheap, he could be a nice piece. $6-$9 45 Charlie Blackmon OF 5.46 I really want to be even lower on him but I can’t find numbers that strongly support a <$5 value. But I probably won’t roster him. $6-$9 46 Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF 5.34 He might not earn out $6+ this year, but the long-term upside is as high as any OF. $6-$9 47 Riley Greene OF 5.31 If you want to flip Greene and Rodriguez, that is probably acceptable. $6-$9 48 Julio Rodriguez OF N/A Maybe not as high as this guy, though. $6-$9 49 Connor Joe 1B/OF 5.59 .321 wOBA on the road, .434 at home; .355 vs. RHP, .394 vs. LHP. You can start him 81 times at Coors and he’s useful against lefties on the road (.334 wOBA), too. $6-$9 50 Andrew Vaughn 1B/OF 5.30 Forced to skip the high minors Vaughn was not great but also not terrible in his debut. Adjustment should show a bit more plate discipline and a lot more HR/FB, and that’s going to be exciting. $6-$9 51 Jarred Kelenic OF 4.77 Like Vaughn but without the skipped levels. $6-$9 52 Avisaíl García OF 5.19 Big step back in home park and his career has been so up and down, but I really like him if I can get him as a 5th or 6th OF. $6-$9 53 Tommy Pham OF 5.36 Projections are higher than me on him, but the last two years he has really struggled despite decent contact quality and plate discipline and I am hesitant to buy. $6-$9 54 Andrew Benintendi OF 5.10 The rare OF bat who could benefit from fewer FB – he doesn’t hit the ball that hard and will do more damage spraying line drives. $6-$9 55 Adam Duvall OF 4.86 The sub-.300 OBP makes him very risky, but there are so many HR in that bat; love him even more for OPL. $6-$9 56 Joc Pederson OF 5.06 After years as a platoon bat who couldn’t touch lefties, he has been nearly average against them the last two years – and been much worse vs. RHP. $6-$9 57 Garrett Cooper 1B/OF 5.25 He won’t carry your OF, but he can put up solid numbers on a part-time basis as long as the Marlins keep him on the field. $6-$9 58 Mark Canha OF 4.98 His 2021 looks like a bit of a decline, but he was still solid vs. RHP and that is the only time you want to use him anyway. $6-$9 59 Andrew McCutchen OF 5.07 Still plugging away, and probably should be higher in this tier, but there is risk he falls off completely at any time. $6-$9 60 Eddie Rosario OF 5.25 Maybe the Guardians fan in me is over-indexing on his first half, but I just don’t think he’l be more than he has been the last couple years. $6-$9 61 Dylan Carlson OF 4.93 He figured some things out in the second half, with more hard contact driving a better ISO and I wonder if the full breakout is coming? $6-$9 62 Willie Calhoun OF 5.38 At this point, you are just gambling that he figures something out. $3-$5 63 Jesús Sánchez OF 5.33 He apparently brought down his K-rate in winter ball and while you can’t assume that will translate, it is certainly intriguing. $3-$5 64 Jo Adell OF 4.78 2021 was not good, but his much improved strike out rate is cause for optimism. $3-$5 65 Mike Yastrzemski OF 4.96 He emerged so late, we could already be into the decline phase, but a lot of his 2021 numbers (barrels, hard hit, plate discipline) look like his 2019-20, but he won’t get back that .370 BABIP. $3-$5 66 Akil Baddoo OF 4.67 As the season went on, he chased less and struck out less, and those kinds of adjustments are great to see. $3-$5 67 Robbie Grossman OF 4.94 His xstats look very consistent since 2020 and suggest his 2021 production could continue. $3-$5 68 Austin Hays OF 4.93 In Ottoneu, a lot of his value comes from power and the fence changes in Baltimore could hit him hard. $3-$5 69 Darin Ruf 러프 1B/OF 5.26 He’s so good against LHP, but when you are limited to being used against LHP, your value is capped. $3-$5 70 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 4.78 Showed signficant improvement in his batted ball quality; I’d love to have him as an option on my bench. $3-$5 71 Brennen Davis OF 5.19 He needs to show he can keep the K’s in check, and will likely get a nice long look in Triple-A to work on that. $3-$5 72 Lane Thomas OF 4.85 Very likely a short-side platoon, so roster him accordingly $3-$5 73 Steven Kwan OF 5.30 The numbers all look good, but some reports of weak contact might be enough cause to pump the breaks. $3-$5 74 Raimel Tapia OF 4.97 If he is leading off in Coors, he has some value. $3-$5 75 George Valera OF N/A Would have him in the top 70 if I felt his debut were closer, but don’t think he will have an impact this year. $3-$5 76 Alek Thomas OF 4.89 Has already destroyed Triple-A and has nothing really in his way in Arizona. $3-$5 77 Josh Lowe OF 4.28 Could easily force his way into the lineup with a big start in Durham, but there isn’t an immediate opening. $3-$5 78 Dominic Smith 1B/OF 4.78 His HR/FB rate dropped a ton, and while there are underlying reasons for that, it should bounceback quite a bit. $3-$5 79 Jordan Luplow 1B/OF 5.05 Finally hit RHP last year and fell apart vs. LHP. Sorta like a small sample size reverse Pederson, in that regard. Worth a flyer as a short-side platoon with upside. $3-$5 80 Gavin Sheets 1B/OF 5.21 Likely a platoon bat and maybe only a part-time platoon bat at that, but I think the 2021 production was mostly real – expect a small regression and limited PA. $3-$5 81 Lars Nootbaar OF 4.97 Busch can be a rough place to hit and he was great on the road; could be a nice part-time bat if he is getting regular PA. $3-$5 82 Anthony Santander OF 5.01 Has been on a steady pace of close to 30 HR per full season, but hasn’t managed a full season. $1-$2 83 Trevor Larnach OF 4.40 Has to bring up the contact rate, but double-digit walk rate and a 116 Max EV? I am not done with you yet. $1-$2 84 Brandon Marsh OF 4.26 Also has good statcast numbers, also striking out too much. $1-$2 85 Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B/OF 4.97 Only 144 PA with Pittsburgh, but strikeouts came way down and barrel rate jumped; has the pedigree to keep it up. $1-$2 86 Wil Myers OF 4.80 I was very high on him after 2020 but he could not sustain the HR/FB rate and that season now looks like an outlier. $1-$2 87 Adolis García OF 4.19 Fell off hard after a torrid start, and I am not sure he can make enough contact to keep his job – but there are worse guys to gamble on. $1-$2 88 Sam Hilliard OF 4.81 I just can’t completely give up on that much power in that park, but he needs to make some changes to keep a job. $1-$2 89 Cooper Hummel OF 5.38 On base skills and enough power to be relevant if he gets reps for the DBacks. $1-$2 90 Josh Naylor 1B/OF 5.37 He puts the ball in play and hits it hard. Was trending up when he suffered that brutal injury in 2021. $1-$2 91 Zac Veen OF N/A There are other more highly rated prospects below him on this list, but his power is a carrying tool. $1-$2 92 David Peralta OF 5.01 The projections think he can bounceback after a rough 2021, but be ready to cut bait cause this could just be the end. $1-$2 93 Aaron Hicks OF 5.04 Looks likely to be the starting CF in New York, and if he is healthy, he could be an impact player. $1-$2 94 Adam Engel OF 4.12 Dramatically increased his contact rate the last two years and results have followed. $1-$2 95 Myles Straw OF 4.28 Not the most exciting for this format, but if he leads off and gets on base regularly, he’ll be useful. $1-$2 96 Jarren Duran OF 4.63 Plate discipline wasn’t an issue in the minors, so good reason to believe he can resolve that in the majors, but it might take some time. $1-$2 97 Tyler Naquin OF 4.82 Walks went up and HR/FB rate went up; the former is hard to explain cause he was no more patient; the latter could be park and that might stick. $1-$2 98 Clint Frazier OF 4.99 More than anything, just want to see him have a healthy season. $1-$2 99 Kole Calhoun OF 4.71 Power disappeared last year and if the barrels don’t come back, neither will his Ottoneu value. $1-$2 100 Randal Grichuk OF 4.97 The promise he showed in 2015 hasn’t materialized and he’s just fantasy filler at this point. $1-$2 101 Harrison Bader OF 4.91 The glove will keep him on the field and he has shown more offensively than I expected the last two years. $1-$2 102 Kyle Lewis OF 4.65 He’s a fine end-of-the-roster option, but if he gets hurt, move on. $1-$2 103 Harold Ramirez OF 5.23 He doesn’t strikeout and he hits the ball hard but it hasn’t added up to much, by wOBA or xwOBA. $1-$2 104 Bryan De La Cruz OF 4.60 Assuming he is starting, he is an interesting piece. His power took a major step last year and that changes his outlook. $1-$2 105 Rafael Ortega OF 4.65 Has been hitting Triple-A since 2015, but took until 2021 to figure out MLB. How much do you want to bet on a 30 year old breakout? $1-$2 106 Pavin Smith 1B/OF 4.83 Doesn’t make loud enough contact for me to see much upside, which makes me think he could wind up on the bench with the other talent coming in Arizona. $1-$2 107 Odúbel Herrera OF 4.96 Showed some occasional flashes of something last year, but not worth more than a flyer. $1-$2 108 Aristides Aquino OF 4.93 The last two years have not been good, but it’s no larger a sample size than his impressive debut. $1-$2 109 Edward Olivares OF 4.85 The Royals will eventually give him a consistent shot, right? $1-$2 110 Kyle Isbel OF 4.66 See above. $1-$2 111 Andy Pages OF N/A The numbers are impressive, the scouting reports are glowing, and the Dodgers player development is elite. $1-$2 112 Heliot Ramos OF 4.08 The hype was strong a year ago, but now has 601 high minors plate appearances and they have not been impressive. $1-$2 113 JJ Bleday OF 3.50 Real power with a strong enough hit tool to realize that power. $1-$2 114 TJ Friedl OF 4.88 If he’s the starting CF in that ballpark, he is worth at least a look, perhaps as a solid strong-side platoon guy. $1-$2 115 Yadiel Hernandez OF 4.87 If he has a job, his power is worth a flyer. $0 116 Austin Slater OF 4.70 Dude crushes lefties, so if you have room for a lefty-masher at the end of your OF, I could see bumping him to the $1 tier. $0 117 Matt Vierling 1B/OF 5.01 Wait and see if he lands a starting gig. He hit well in a SSS in MLB, but otherwise he’s looked pedestrian except for the Reading launching pad. $0 118 Taylor Ward OF 5.66 He is just hoping to be the fourth OF behind Adell, Marsh and Trout. $0 119 Tyrone Taylor OF 4.82 Probably next-in-line in Milwaukee, but could get a boost from the DH. $0 120 Colton Cowser OF N/A He’s still far away but some reason to believe he could move fast and the hit tool is star-making. $0 121 Matt Beaty 1B/OF 4.82 If Muncy is out and they add DH, he could be useful for a bit. $0 122 D.J. Stewart OF 4.65 He needs the power to play up and for all the RH OF bats ahead of him to fail miserably thanks to the new fences. $0 123 Franchy Cordero 1B/OF 4.42 Someone will probably bet on a breakout from him, but it won’t be me (until he starts breaking out and I get sucked back in). $0 124 Michael Harris OF N/A Has been more good than great and while the reports are strong, he hasn’t even faced the high-minors yet. $0 125 Manuel Margot OF 4.88 Basically has to lead off to have value and think he’s more likely to lose his job than to lead off. $0 126 Lorenzo Cain OF 4.75 He’s 35, in clear decline, likely to hit at the end of the lineup and likely to miss some time. $0 127 Nomar Mazara OF 4.55 On the one hand, the Padres are an exciting team with a lot of talent. On the other, right now it sorta looks like Mazara might be in their lineup. $0 128 Michael Hermosillo OF 4.81 The least interesting of a crowded outfield, in my opinion. $0 129 Ryan Vilade OF 4.46 There is some interesting upside and thanks to some swing changes, the projections might be low on him. $0 130 Justin Upton OF 4.86 Some of the projections have some optimism, but we are on three years of a barely-over-.300 wOBA. $0 131 Joey Wiemer OF N/A Appears to be a launch angle success story already. $0 132 Robert Hassell lll OF N/A I don’t usually like prospects who are so far away, but the upside is high enough here to take a look. $0 133 Seth Brown OF 4.43 Ooooo he projects for 20-25 HR in a part-time role? That’s pretty f…wait. With that OBP?? $0 134 Alex Dickerson OF 5.35 Jumps up to near the middle of the $1 tier if he gets a job with regular PA. $0 135 Khalil Lee OF 4.80 He needs to find a path into the lineup and he needs to show he can hit, and until he does one of the two, I am going to sit this one out. $0 136 Corey Dickerson OF 4.76 Has only been okay recently and not sure he lands in a good enough spot to matter. $0 137 Brent Rooker OF 4.83 If Kirilloff or Larnach flame out, he could get another shot. $0 138 Yonathan Daza OF 4.40 I know it’s Coors but I just don’t see enough in the profile to get excited about. $0 139 Chas McCormick OF 4.21 He showed some solid plate discipline in the minors so maybe there is hope that shows up for the Astros? $0 140 Victor Reyes OF 4.29 Too much needs to go right – he needs to K less, hit for a high BABIP, and bring up his HR/FB rate. He can do that, but it’s not a good bet. $0 141 Victor Robles OF 4.37 In 5×5, sure you could gamble on him finding his swing. $0 142 Estevan Florial OF 4.34 Don’t let the gaudy rates in Double-A and MLB distract you from his only meaningful sample last year, which was Triple-A and unimpressive. $0 143 Kevin Kiermaier OF 4.04 He’s on the field for his defense. $0 144 Brett Phillips OF 4.01 He’s off the field cause of Kiermaier’s defense (but also may not hit enough to be useful here). $0 145 Miguel Andújar OF 5.48 I didn’t love the skilset when he was performing. $0 146 Jason Heyward OF 4.65 I am not sure the defense is still good enough to guarantee him PA and the bat isn’t exciting except as depth. $0 147 Kyle Garlick OF N/A There is some talent here, but too much stands between him and relevance. $0 148 Mickey Moniak OF 4.21 2021 was encouraging but the upside here is no longer “tapping into his elite draft pedigree” and is more “maybe he can be solid bench bat.” $0 149 Jake Meyers OF 4.50 Was only sorta interesting when he looked like he might be a regular, but he won’t be ready for Opening Day. $0 150 Jasson Dominguez OF N/A He’s been at most moderately impressive and he is still far away; if you get him to trade his name, that might work if he hits. $0 151 Garrett Mitchell OF N/A Just no pop at all. $0 152 Hedbert Perez OF N/A Has the pop, but not the ability to put the bat to the ball consistently. $0 153 Bradley Zimmer OF 4.04 Mix a dash of decreased whiffs, a pinch of elevating the ball, and his existing skills, and you have a kinda fun player! $0 154 Jackie Bradley Jr. OF 3.88 Maybe being back in Boston can help him find his swing. $0 155 Drew Waters OF 4.21 He’s got to stop the strikeouts and tap into his power – if he shows that at Triple-A, I might get interested. $0 156 David Dahl OF 4.20 Have to wonder what could have been. $0 157 Leody Taveras OF 4.14 Even if he breaks out, it is unlikely to make him a factor in this format. $0 158 Taylor Trammell OF 3.96 Expect he’ll be on the outside looking in on the Mariners soon. $0 159 Jake Fraley OF 4.50 Got intensely patient last year and stopped chasing (or really swinging) and walked a ton as a result, so maybe he could be sneaky useful? $0 160 Luke Raley OF 5.02 Just don’t see where the playing time comes from. $0 161 Cristian Pache OF 3.98 NL DH might help him stay on the field by getting Ozuna off it, but he’s still just a watch-and-see guy. $0 162 Jose Siri OF 4.32 2021 was high BABIP inflated but could be worth watching to see what he can do, if given time. $0 163 Oscar Mercado OF 4.33 The Clevelander in me would love to believe, but…I don’t. $0 164 Michael A. Taylor OF 4.18 He’s only on this list because he is likely a starting OF for an MLB team so he should be on this list. $0 165 Travis Demeritte OF 4.49 Has crushed Triple-A but needs to show he can hit at all in MLB before I take a shot on him, $0 166 Daz Cameron OF 4.50 Probably too late, especially with Riley Greene coming. $0 167 Luis Matos OF N/A Looks like a pure CF/speed type that plays up in fantasy but down in this format, but watch for a power breakout. $0 168 Shogo Akiyama OF 4.59 Just can’t see a breakout coming. $0 169 Jairo Pomares OF N/A Showed some legit power in 2021 and worth keeping an eye on. $0 170 Everson Pereira OF N/A Time to see what he can do against stiffer competition

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