Welcome to the Bets of the Day column for Tuesday. We are about 35-40% into the current MLB season with most teams having played at least 60 games. This means we have plenty of in-season data at our fingertips to make some sound decisions with our MLB bets. Last week did not go well with a 1-2 day but we will quickly snap out of that funk this evening.
So what does the analysis like for today? As usual, I will highlight three picks. Let’s get to it!
The Phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 games and the offense is red hot. The Marlins are 12-18 on the road and starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has a 5.58 ERA with an expected ERA on Statcast not showing that much improvement. Rogers’ expected SLG and wOBA are expected to get worse and those real values are already high at 0.488 and 0.358, respectively. How do you not take a very good offense against a struggling pitcher?
Meanwhile, Phillies starting pitcher Zach Eflin is having a very good season. Even though his 2-4 record doesn’t show it, his expected ERA is one run lower than his actual ERA, which is already solid at 3.76. Except for a bad start against the Mets last month, three of Eflin’s last four games were brilliant.
Perhaps the firing of Joe Girardi has something to do with the Phillies’ current hot streak. This team is plenty talented and looks poised to end its 11-year playoff drought. Their winning ways should continue against the Marlins, a team with arguably worse playoff futility having made the postseason just once in the last 18 years, and that was in 2020 when the playoff field was expanded thanks to the pandemic shortened season. The Marlins have no direction or strong leadership.
Speaking of teams who are hot, how about them Braves! 12 wins in a row! 10 of those 12 wins have been by at least two runs so you should feel comfortable taking the -1.5 run line. After all, the Braves are the road team and the delta between the money line and run line payouts is quite small. This makes the -1.5 run line ripe for the picking based on historical data.
The Nationals are a team going in the opposite direction having lost five of their seven games and losing four of those five games by two runs or more. Washington has the 2nd worst record in the NL as well as the 2nd worst run differential. The pitching matchup also is not doing the Nationals any favors. Max Fried is on the mound for Atlanta who is continuing his stellar career with the Braves with a 6-2 record and a 2.64 ERA. Fried has a career 46-20 record with a 3.24 ERA all with Atlanta. He is the real deal.
On the flip side, the Nationals are trotting out a rookie: Jackson Tetreault. He is making his first MLB starts and something tells me that the Braves will give him a very warm welcome by tattooing him for 3-4 HRs and several other extra-base hits. His minor league numbers are not great so it seems that Nationals are trying to find any warm bodies to put out there with Stephen Strasburg recently joining the IL. Juan Soto may join him too. The more you slice and dice this matchup, taking the Brave at -1.5 runs is a no-brainer.
The Rockies return home after a seven-game road trip in California where they went 4-3. Usually, the Colorado bats come alive in their first game back in the Rocky Mountains. The same can be said about the visiting team. Historically the road team will pop off in the first game in its series in Colorado. The Guardians’ offense is a pesky one and as long as Jose Ramirez is doing his thing, his teammates typically respond in a big way.
The pitching matchup is an interesting one. While Antonio Senzatela’s real ERA doesn’t seem that bad at 4.83, his expected ERA jumps to 6.85. Holy cow! Senzatela could easily give up 10 runs today. Shane Bieber is a better pitcher but he is also due for negative regression. I could see Cleveland winning this game 10-5 which is plenty of runs needed to hit the over. The line of 10.5 is low.
There you have it. Trust the data and hopefully, we have a perfect day. Good luck!
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)