90-72 (2nd in Division; 11th in MLB)
SP Wins: 45 (13th)
RP Wins: 45 (4th)
Saves: 51 (3rd)
65+ RBI: 3 (Seager 101, Haniger 100, France 73)
BEST BUY: Mitch Haniger
Injuries cost Haniger 99 games in 2019 and all of 2020. Once healthy, he picked up where he left off as a premium power source. His power metrics are strong and he has decent plate skills so if he can remain healthy, he’s a 30-90 lock. A couple of his biggest injuries have been fluky so I don’t think he has exceptionally higher injury risk with 157 games played in two of his last three seasons (63 in ’19, 0 in ’20). He goes just outside the Top 100, a fair price for such a capable power bat.
ON THE RISE: Jarred Kelenic
The blue-chip prospect didn’t impress upon arrival with just a 73 wRC+ as a 21-year-old, but don’t give up on him. He opened with a 32% K and 9% BB rate in his first 149 PA through July. He started to find his footing a bit in the final two months with a 25% K and 10% BB rate in 228 PA, posting a .223/.307/.450 line. He is going at pick 137 right now so the market isn’t giving up on him and I’m not either. I might not seek him out across all of my drafts because of the tier of outfielders he is in (Bryan Reynolds, Ryan Mountcastle, Trent Grisham, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Dylan Carlson, Akil Baddoo, and Chris Taylor), but he is a 25 HR/10 SB guy even without a ton of improvement next year.
OFF THE RADAR: Luis Torrens
This might be the last year that Torrens is catcher eligible because he isn’t great behind the dish. He does have some pop in his bat, though. He hit 15 HR with a .188 ISO and has a pinkish-red StatCast profile backing the power.
He decimated lefties (.854 OPS, 9 HR) but will need to show some improvement against righties (.644, 6) to get that everyday playing time at DH/1B. Even as a short side platoon guy, he is a worthwhile C2 as the 29th catcher off the board.
HOT TAKE: Ty France hits 35 HR.
France likely would’ve eclipsed 20 HR this past season if not for a wrist injury that bothered off and on for most of the season. It started in late-April and lingered from then on. Knowing that makes his summer surge that much more impressive as he hit .307/.378/.472 from June 1st on with 15 HR, 53 RBI, and 62 R in 466 PA.
He doesn’t always crush the ball which is in part a tradeoff for the 16% K rate, but he has power spikes that can supply enough to punch to hit 35 HR. If he completely sold out for power, he would do it easily, but I see him doing it while holding a lot of last year’s strikeout gains and still being a plus bat in AVG. France is 1B/2B eligible and regularly goes in the 9th-11th round range of 15-teamers.
ICYMI: Dylan Moore had 12 HR/21 SB in an otherwise disastrous season (74 wRC+, .181 AVG, 29% K). He has a bead on the 2B job and has been a 20 HR/30 SB bat per 600 PA over his career. I don’t think he just runs away with the everyday job, but he can be a useful injury fill-in with his power/speed profile. Barring a massive BABIP, he will be an AVG risk, but that’s why the 2B/OF eligible 29-year-old is going at pick 386 in early drafts.